Trade & Tariff Risk Index
A composite measure of tariff burden, non-tariff barriers, trade dependence, partner and product concentration, border friction, logistics quality, and geopolitical trade exposure across 190+ markets — designed to identify countries most vulnerable to trade disruption and policy-driven market access risk.
A representative selection of country scores across the trade and tariff risk spectrum. The full 190-country dataset is available on subscription.
Lowest trade & tariff risk
✓ Public| # | Country | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Singapore | 94.4 | Very Low |
| 2 | Netherlands | 92.8 | Very Low |
| 3 | United Arab Emirates | 91.6 | Very Low |
| 4 | Hong Kong | 90.7 | Very Low |
| 5 | Germany | 89.4 | Very Low |
| 6 | Denmark | 88.3 | Low |
| 7 | Sweden | 87.6 | Low |
| 8 | Switzerland | 86.9 | Low |
| 9 | Belgium | 86.1 | Low |
| 10 | Canada | 85.4 | Low |
Highest trade & tariff risk
✓ Public| # | Country | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 190 | North Korea | 4.6 | Very High |
| 189 | Afghanistan | 7.8 | Very High |
| 188 | South Sudan | 9.1 | Very High |
| 187 | Eritrea | 10.4 | Very High |
| 186 | Sudan | 11.9 | Very High |
| 185 | Yemen | 13.3 | Very High |
| 184 | Central African Republic | 14.6 | Very High |
| 183 | Haiti | 16.2 | Very High |
| 182 | Syria | 17.5 | Very High |
| 181 | Somalia | 18.7 | Very High |
Full Trade & Tariff Risk Index · 190 countries
⬤ Subscription required| # | Country | Score | Tariffs | NTBs | Dependence | Concentration | Logistics | Geo Exposure | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | United States | 84.7 | 82.6 | 79.4 | 88.1 | 86.3 | 85.7 | 78.9 | ▼ 0.4 |
| 12 | Japan | 83.9 | 84.1 | 80.8 | 82.4 | 81.7 | 87.6 | 76.8 | ▲ 0.2 |
| 13 | ████████ | ██.█ | ██.█ | ██.█ | ██.█ | ██.█ | ██.█ | ██.█ | █ █.█ |
Six dimensions of trade vulnerability and market access risk
The Trade & Tariff Risk Index combines formal tariff costs, hidden regulatory barriers, trade dependence, concentration risk, border friction, logistics quality, and geopolitical exposure into a single comparable country score.
Tariff Burden
Weighted mean applied tariff rates, simple average applied tariffs, MFN rates, bound tariff rates, bound-applied gaps, duty-free tariff lines, and tariff peaks across agricultural and non-agricultural goods.
Non-Tariff Barriers
SPS measures, TBT measures, import licensing, quantitative restrictions, trade defence instruments, safeguards, anti-dumping measures, and WTO-notified trade concerns.
Trade Openness & Dependence
Trade as a share of GDP, export dependence, import dependence, goods and services trade exposure, food import dependence, energy import dependence, and intermediate goods reliance.
Trade Concentration Risk
Export partner concentration, import partner concentration, product concentration, top-three partner shares, top-five product shares, and Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration measures.
Logistics & Border Friction
Customs efficiency, logistics performance, trade infrastructure quality, shipment reliability, timeliness, tracking and tracing, shipping connectivity, trade costs, and port access.
Geopolitical Trade Exposure
Exposure to sanctioned or high-risk markets, dependence on strategic import partners, reliance on chokepoint-sensitive goods, semiconductor import dependence, energy dependence, fertiliser exposure, and critical minerals vulnerability.
How the Trade & Tariff Risk Index is built
The Trade & Tariff Risk Index is a weighted composite of six dimensions, each scored on a 0–100 scale using percentile-ranked indicators from public, multilateral, and trade-specific datasets. Higher scores indicate lower risk and more resilient trade positioning.
Tariff Burden
Measures the direct cost of formal tariff barriers facing importers and exporters, including applied rates, bound rates, tariff peaks, and duty-free access.
Non-Tariff Barriers
Captures regulatory and administrative trade frictions such as SPS, TBT, licensing, quantitative restrictions, trade remedies, and other notified measures.
Trade Openness & Dependence
Assesses the extent to which countries are structurally exposed to external trade flows, including import reliance, export reliance, and sector-specific dependence.
Trade Concentration Risk
Measures vulnerability to shocks affecting a narrow set of trade partners or products, using partner and product concentration metrics derived from bilateral trade data.
Logistics & Border Friction
Assesses whether goods can move efficiently across borders through customs, ports, transport networks, shipping connections, and trade logistics systems.
Geopolitical Trade Exposure
Captures exposure to trade conflict, sanctions, export controls, strategic import dependencies, and chokepoint-sensitive categories such as energy, fertilisers, semiconductors, and critical minerals.
Indicative sources: UN Comtrade, World Bank WITS, UNCTAD TRAINS, WTO Tariff Download Facility, WTO I-TIP Goods, World Bank World Development Indicators, World Bank Logistics Performance Index, UNCTADstat, IMF Direction of Trade Statistics, ESCAP–World Bank International Trade Costs, Global Trade Alert.
Get full access to the Trade & Tariff Risk Index
190 countries. Six trade risk dimensions covering tariffs, non-tariff barriers, trade dependence, concentration, logistics, and geopolitical exposure. Quarterly updates.