Sovereign Risk Index
A structured assessment of the probability of sovereign default, debt restructuring risk, and fiscal sustainability across 190 markets — built on the analytical framework used by the IMF, bond investors, and development finance institutions. Higher scores indicate lower sovereign risk.
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190 sovereigns
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A representative selection of sovereign risk scores across the risk spectrum. The full 190-country dataset — including all category-level sub-scores — is available on subscription.
Lowest sovereign risk
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| # | Country | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norway | 97.2 | Very Low |
| 2 | Germany | 96.4 | Very Low |
| 3 | Switzerland | 95.9 | Very Low |
| 4 | Netherlands | 95.1 | Very Low |
| 5 | Denmark | 94.8 | Very Low |
| 6 | Sweden | 94.3 | Very Low |
| 7 | Australia | 93.7 | Very Low |
| 8 | Finland | 93.2 | Very Low |
| 9 | Canada | 92.6 | Very Low |
| 10 | Singapore | 92.1 | Very Low |
Highest sovereign risk
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| # | Country | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 190 | Venezuela | 1.6 | Very High |
| 189 | Zimbabwe | 2.9 | Very High |
| 188 | Lebanon | 3.8 | Very High |
| 187 | Sudan | 5.2 | Very High |
| 186 | Eritrea | 6.4 | Very High |
| 185 | Somalia | 7.8 | Very High |
| 184 | Yemen | 8.9 | Very High |
| 183 | Argentina | 11.4 | Very High |
| 182 | Ethiopia | 13.2 | Very High |
| 181 | Sri Lanka | 14.7 | Very High |
Full Sovereign Risk Index · 190 countries
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| # | Country | Score | Debt Sust. | Fiscal | External | Market | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Austria | 91.4 | 89.2 | 91.8 | 90.4 | 93.6 | ▲ 0.2 |
| 12 | New Zealand | 91.1 | 90.6 | 89.4 | 88.7 | 92.1 | ▼ 0.1 |
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What the Sovereign Risk Index measures
The index is built on seven analytical categories, each drawing on multiple publicly available data sources. No single indicator tells the full story — the composite captures the interactions between fiscal capacity, debt dynamics, external vulnerability, market signals, and institutional quality.
Debt Sustainability
- Government debt / GDP
- External debt / GNI
- Debt service / revenue ratio
- Interest payments / GDP
- Average debt maturity
- Foreign currency debt share
Fiscal Position
- Primary fiscal balance / GDP
- Overall fiscal deficit / GDP
- Revenue / GDP
- Expenditure rigidity
- Cyclically adjusted balance
- Revenue diversification
External Vulnerability
- Current account balance / GDP
- FX reserves (months import cover)
- Gross external financing needs
- Net International Investment Position
- External debt / exports
Economic Capacity & Growth
- Real GDP growth rate
- GDP per capita (level)
- Interest rate minus growth (r-g) differential
- Export diversification
- Commodity dependence ratio
Monetary & Currency Stability
- Inflation rate and trend
- Exchange rate regime classification
- Real effective exchange rate (REER)
- Central bank independence
- Dollarisation level
- Banking sector NPL ratio
Market Signals
- Sovereign credit ratings
- EMBI+ sovereign bond spread
- 5-year CDS spread
- Historical default events
- IMF programme status
Institutional & Political Quality
- Rule of law
- Control of corruption
- Government effectiveness
- Political stability
- Voice & accountability
Get full access to the Sovereign Risk Index
190 sovereigns. Seven analytical categories. Quarterly updates tracking fiscal, debt, and market dynamics.